It was already hard to imagine a breakthrough emerging from the direct talks between Russia and Ukraine set to be renewed in Istanbul on Monday.
But in the aftermath of what appear to have been multiple large-scale Ukrainian drone strikes against strategic bases across Russia, it’s even less likely either side will be prepared to shift their red lines.
Even before the latest strikes, which targeted Russian strategic aircraft thousands of miles from the Ukrainian border, the Kremlin had declined to formally set out, in the form of an agreed-to memorandum, what exactly it wants in return for ending what it refers to as its “Special Military Operation”.
But Russian officials have made no secret about their hardline terms, including sovereignty over all annexed territories, the demilitarization of Ukraine, immediate sanctions relief and what the Kremlin calls “de-Nazification”, involving things like guaranteeing the rights of Russian-speakers.
Concerns about further NATO expansion toward Russian borders – especially Ukraine, but other countries too – have also been a consistent Kremlin grievance, as has the fate of hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets abroad.
There’s been speculation in the Russian and Western media about areas for possible negotiation, and the outcome of the Istanbul talks are being closely watched for any hints of flexibility.
But in the aftermath of what appears to have been a spectacular Ukrainian success, talk of Kremlin compromises may, for the moment, be off the table.
Ukraine goes into this second round of direct talks bolstered by its apparent destruction of Russian strategic bombers and other crucial air assets.
On Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky set out some of Ukraine’s positions, including an unconditional ceasefire and the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russia.
But Russian demands for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from territory it claims but has not even conquered remain unpalatable, even more so now Ukraine has shown it can still strike deep behind the front lines.
Even before the latest Ukrainian drone strikes, amid preparations for the peace talks in Istanbul, Russia was stepping up attacks on Ukraine in what seems to be the early stages of a new summer offensive.
Overnight Saturday, Russia launched its largest drone attack on Ukraine since the beginning of the war – involving 472 drones. On Sunday, a Russian missile strike killed at least 12 people and wounded more than 60 at a training site for the Ukrainian military.
As all this unfolds, an increasingly frustrated US President Donald Trump, who used to brag he could end the Ukraine war in short order, is now watching from the sidelines as a cornerstone of his stated foreign policy looks decidedly shaky.
Neither his pressure on the Ukrainian leader, who Trump lambasted in the Oval Office, nor his recent scolding of the Kremlin ruler appear to have pushed the two sides any closer to a peace deal.
Trump still has powerful levers to pull if he chooses, like imposing tough new sanctions, such as those overwhelmingly supported in the US Senate, or adjusting US military aid in a way that would dramatically increase the costs of fighting on. The measures may not be decisive, but they would send a message of US commitment.
What Trump says he is tempted to do, though, is simply walk away from the whole mess. This is Biden’s war, he insists, or Putin’s and Zelensky’s.
But walking away – and it is unclear what that means in terms of US policy – may no longer be an option. At least not walking away unscathed.
His own insistence on ending the Ukraine conflict, along with his personal interventions with the Ukrainian and Russian leaders, means that Trump and the United States are now inextricably linked with the outcome.
That’s why events on the battlefield and at the negotiating table in Istanbul are being watched so closely.
Despite his regular attempts to disown it, the Ukraine war has very much become Trump’s war on which US credibility now hangs by a thread.
